You're at the final table, your opponent across the table looks confident, and you're staring at a 6-card hand that has everything except that second land. Serum Visions is glinting in your hand alongside a Thoughtseize and a Noble Hierarch. Do you ship it to five? Or do you keep, hoping the London scry finds you that second Forest?
This is the modern mulligan dilemma. The London Mulligan rule changed everything. When you take a mulligan, you scry 1 after drawing your new hand. That tiny bit of selection turns what used to be a penalty into a tactical tool. Now, keeping a 6-card hand isn't just about "good enough" - it's about "can I leverage that scry to get where I need to be?"
The New Keep Metrics
Forget the old "7-card hand with 2-3 lands" rule. In London, your 6-card hand gets a quality filter. That means hands that were marginal keepers before are now often correct keeps. But not all sketchy sixes are created equal.
Ask yourself four questions:
- Can I cast my spells on curve? If you need two lands to play your key cards, a 6-card hand better have two mana sources.
- Do I have a proactive plan? Are you the aggressor or the control? Aggro/combo decks need to curve out; control can afford to durdle a bit.
- Is my hand synergistic? A Noble Hierarch without a high-mana payoff is just a 0/1 that eats a Bolt.
- What does my scry target look like? If your deck has high land density and your hand is missing one specific piece, keep and scry for it.
Serum Visions: The Literal Scryenomenon
Hands with Serum Visions are keep magnets for good reason. That card draws you two and scrys two. In a 6-card hand, Serum Visions is half your selection package. It can smooth out a shaky mana base, find your missing threat, or dig past a brick.
Keep a 6 if you have: 1 land + Serum Visions + any other spell that's okay on one mana. The plan is: play land, cast Visions, see two cards, put one on bottom, draw a fresh one. That's card advantage and selection. You just went from 6 cards to effectively 8 quality cards.
Serum Visions in a 6-card hand is often correct even if the rest of the hand is mediocre because the card fixes so much. It's not just a cantrip - it's a London enabler. This is especially true in a format like Modern where Izzet Prowess, running cards like Cori-Steel Cutter and Slickshot Show-Off, often needs to dig for specific pieces or just more spells. A hand with one land, Serum Visions, and a couple of prowess threats can easily turn into a perfect curve. You cast Serum Visions, scry away a land you don't need or find that second land, then unleash your threats. The deck wants to cast a lot of spells, and Serum Visions gives you that velocity.
Thoughtseize: The Interactive Keep
Thoughtseize changes ownership of the game. If you keep a 6-card hand with Thoughtseize, you'd better have a way to cast it on turn 1 (or turn 2 on the play without disruption). And you'd better have a follow-up play.
The trap: keeping a hand with Thoughtseize, two lands, and four other spells that all cost 3+ mana. You'll strip their best card on turn 1, but then you'll have nothing to play on turn 2. That's a losing play against most decks. Imagine playing against Boros Energy in Modern, which holds 16.8% of the meta. If you take their Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury but then sit there, they'll just deploy Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and run you over.
The keep: Thoughtseize, a one-drop creature (like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer), and two lands. You take their removal, play Ragavan on turn 1, and steal their best non-land. That's a 2-for-1 and tempo swing. Now you're dictating the game. This line is particularly strong against combo decks like Ruby Storm, which makes up 7.8% of the Modern meta, where taking a key piece like Ruby Medallion can completely shut them down.
Noble Hierarch and Birds of Paradise: Acceleration Dilemma
These mana dorks are the backbone of many Modern and Legacy decks. But a hand with Noble Hierarch and three three-drops isn't automatically a keep in a 6-card hand. You need to ask: can I actually use the acceleration?
Keep if you have: Noble Hierarch + a 2-drop + a 3-drop. Turn 1 Hierarch, turn 2 your 2-drop, turn 3 your 3-drop. That's a perfect curve. That hand is gas. Consider a deck like Amulet Titan in Modern, at 3.5% of the meta. A hand with Noble Hierarch, Amulet of Vigor, and a land that can tap for two mana is an easy keep. You're setting up for a massive turn 2 or 3 Primeval Titan.
Ship if you have: Noble Hierarch but your highest CMC is 3, and the rest are one-drops. You're not gaining much from the acceleration; you're just playing a 1/1 on turn 1. That's not worth the risk of not having enough mana to cast everything.
Birds of Paradise is even more punishing because it taps for any color. Keep with it if you have a high-mana payoff (like a 4-drop or a two-color spell). Otherwise, you're just playing a flying chump blocker. In a deck like Selesnya Company in Pioneer (6.3% of the meta), a hand with Birds of Paradise and Collected Company is a strong keep, as Birds helps you cast Company a turn earlier, flooding the board with Badgermole Cub and Aven Interrupter.
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer: The Dash King
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is format-warping. A turn 1 Ragavan often wins the game on its own. But in a 6-card hand, you have to consider the dash clause.
If your hand is just Ragavan and five other spells that cost 2+? Keep. You dash Ragavan on turn 1 for R, leaving you with a 5-card hand but an extra mana. That's fine. On turn 2 you can use Ragavan's ability to cast spells from the top of your library. You're still accessing those five cards, just with a timing delay.
The exception: if you have zero other one-drops and your deck relies on curving out perfectly, maybe ship. But Ragavan is so absurd that he often deserves the keep even on the draw. This little monkey is a house, especially in Boros Energy decks in Modern. It's not just about the damage; it's about the treasure token accelerating your game plan and the card advantage from casting opponents' spells. A hand with one Mountain and Ragavan is a snap-keep almost every time, even if the rest of your hand is a bit clunky. The potential for a turn 2 Ocelot Pride or a turn 3 Phlage is just too high.
Archetype Matters: Contextual Mulligans
The London Mulligan amplifies the importance of understanding your deck's game plan from the get-go. What's a keep for one archetype is a definite ship for another.
Combo decks: You need the pieces. A 6-card hand with the two key combo cards and a tutor is a keep even if you're missing a third land. You'll scry for it. Take Abzan Greasefang in Pioneer, holding 16.8% of the meta. If you have Greasefang, Okiba Boss and a Parhelion II in hand, plus some way to discard the Parhelion, you're keeping that hand, even if it's light on lands. You scry for the land or the discard outlet. The deck's goal is to assemble the combo, and the London Mulligan helps you dig for those critical pieces. This is a very different mentality than a pure aggro deck.
Control decks: You want 3+ lands and a sweeper. A 6-card hand with 2 lands, a Counterspell, and a Sphinx's Revelation? Probably ship. That Sphinx's Revelation is great, but you need to survive to cast it. But 3 lands, a draw spell like Consult the Star Charts, and a removal like Get Lost? That's fine. Azorius Control in Standard, while only 1.4% of the meta, exemplifies this. They need to hit those land drops to deploy Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Supreme Verdict. A hand with two lands and a couple of cantrips might look okay, but if you need to hit land drop 3 and 4 consistently, a two-land hand is often too risky unless one of those cantrips is a guaranteed land-finder.
Midrange decks: You want threat density and interaction. A hand with three creatures (Noble Hierarch, Ragavan, something else) is keepable. You'll draw into your midrange haymakers. Think about Dimir Midrange in Modern, at 3.2% of the meta. A hand with Thoughtseize, a Fetch Land, a Watery Grave, and an Orcish Bowmasters is a fantastic keep. You can disrupt their early game, develop your board, and then draw into your Psychic Frog or Counterspell to maintain control. The London mulligan allows you to be slightly greedier for those synergistic pieces.
Aggro decks: You need to curve out hard. Mono-Red Prowess in Pioneer (19% of the meta) absolutely needs to have a turn 1 play, ideally a Soul-Scar Mage or a Monastery Swiftspear, followed by burn spells. A 6-card hand with two lands and two 1-drop prowess creatures and a couple of Emberheart Challenger or Screaming Nemesis is a snap keep. You're looking for that explosive start. A hand that misses a 1-drop or has too many high-CMC cards, even with enough lands, is usually a ship, because the deck lives and dies by its early pressure.
breakdown: Mana Bases and Odds
Understanding your deck's mana requirements is crucial when making mulligan decisions. How many colored sources do you need for your turn 2 play? What are the odds of drawing that second land if you keep a one-lander?
Let's say you're playing a Standard Izzet Lessons deck, currently the top dog at 10.8% of the meta. You need to hit your second land drop consistently to cast cards like Monument to Endurance or Artist's Talent. If you keep a one-land hand, and that one land is a basic Island, what are your chances of drawing a second land by turn 2? Use a Hypergeometric Calculator. If you have 24 lands in your 53-card deck (after drawing your initial 6), the odds of drawing a land on your first draw step are roughly 45%. Not great, Bob. But if one of your cards is Serum Visions, you're seeing two cards, increasing your chances significantly.
Conversely, if you're on the play with a hand of two lands and a bunch of 3-drops, and you know your deck runs 26 lands, your odds of drawing a third land by turn 3 are pretty high. You can often keep that hand and rely on natural draws. This is where a well-tuned mana base, crafted using a Mana Base Calculator, pays dividends. Knowing your land count and color requirements helps you make informed decisions.
Your Mulligan Checklist
Before you ship to five, run this mental script:
- Do I have at least two mana sources? (Three if you're playing a deck that wants to cast 3-drops on turn 2, like Jeskai Blink in Modern, which wants to cast Solitude early. They're at 5.3% of the meta with a ~$992 price tag, so every card counts.)
- Do I have a one-drop threat or interaction? (Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Thoughtseize, or even a cheap cantrip like Ponder in Legacy or Brainstorm.)
- Do I have a two-mana play? (Thoughtseize, Spell Pierce, a 2-drop creature like an Ocelot Pride, or a counter like Counterspell.)
- Is my hand cohesive? (Discard + creatures, ramp + payoff, draw spells + threats. A hand with a Birds of Paradise and an Ouroboroid in Simic Ouroboroid (3.8% of Standard) is cohesive, setting up for a big threat.)
- If I keep, will my scry actually help? (If you're missing a specific card, scrying for it is good. If you're just missing lands in general, scrying won't fix it.)
If you answered "yes" to three or more, keep. If not, ship. Remember, the London Mulligan is about increasing the quality of your opening hand, not just the quantity of cards.
Sample Decklist: Modern Izzet Prowess
Let's look at a typical Izzet Prowess list in Modern. This deck thrives on cheap spells and efficient threats, making mulligan decisions critical for curving out and maintaining pressure. This list is a pretty standard take, focused on speed and synergy.
This deck is all about getting on the board fast and leveraging prowess. Cards like Monastery Swiftspear and Soul-Scar Mage are your primary damage dealers. A hand with a land, a Swiftspear, and a Serum Visions is almost always a keep. You play the land, cast Swiftspear, then next turn you can cast Serum Visions, trigger prowess, and potentially scry into Lightning Bolt or another threat. Expressive Iteration is another key card for digging and card advantage, making a 6-card hand with it much more attractive.
For sideboarding, against something like Boros Energy, you'd bring in Blood Moon to attack their mana base and potentially Fury to deal with their Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Ocelot Pride. Against combo decks like Ruby Storm, Flusterstorm and Spell Pierce are crucial for disrupting their key turns. Your mulligan strategy will shift slightly in game 2 and 3; if you're on the draw against a combo deck, you might be more inclined to keep a hand with Spell Pierce or Flusterstorm, even if it's a bit slower on threats, because stopping their combo is paramount.
Bottom Line
London Mulligan turned mulligans from a tax into a tool. That 6-card hand with Serum Visions? It might just be the right keep. Thoughtseize in hand? That's interactive magic. Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer? Dash him out and feel good about it.
But remember: your deck's plan matters more than any single rule. Playtest. Watch matches. Develop a feel for what your 6-card hands actually do. And next time you're agonizing at the table, just remember: you get a scry. Use it wisely. Don't be afraid to experiment with different opening hands in a casual setting. Understanding the probabilities of hitting your land drops or finding specific combo pieces can be greatly aided by our Hypergeometric Calculator.
What's your sketchiest 6-card keep? Hit me up in the comments. For those looking to practice their draft strategy and apply these mulligan principles in Limited, our Draft Simulator is a great resource!
Keep an eye on the meta trends, particularly in Standard where Mono-Green Landfall and Mono-Red Aggro are trending up. Their aggressive leans mean you might need to adjust your mulligan philosophy to prioritize early interaction or disruptive elements. Until next time, may your opening hands always be gas!