How Many Lands in Commander? We Simulated 3.75 Million Games
Everyone has an opinion about Commander land counts. The EDHREC average is 29 lands. Precons ship with 37–38. Reddit says “it depends.” We decided to stop guessing and run the numbers.
We simulated 3.75 million Commander games across 5 archetypes and 15 land counts using the same Monte Carlo engine that powers ScrollVault’s Mana Base Calculator. Every number on this page comes from 50,000 simulated games with realistic mana bases, London Mulligan with Commander’s free first mulligan, and ramp sources modeled with their actual mana output (Sol Ring = 2 mana, Mana Vault = 3).
If you just want the answer for your deck, use the Mana Base Calculator. If you want to see the data, keep reading.
The Short Answer
| Archetype | Avg MV | Ramp | Recommended Lands | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cEDH Turbo | 1.8 | 12 (fast mana) | 29–31 | Dense acceleration compensates; 96%+ on 3MV by turn 3 |
| Combo | 2.5 | 10 (rocks) | 33–35 | Needs to find combo pieces, not flood; 98%+ on 3MV |
| Midrange | 3.0 | 10 (mixed) | 36–37 | The balanced default; 95–97% on every spell through 5MV |
| Battlecruiser | 3.5 | 8 (rocks + ramp) | 38–40 | Big spells need big mana; 7MV spells only 73–80% reliable even here |
| Landfall | 3.0 | 6 (land ramp) | 38–40 | Every land drop triggers payoffs; reliability + value |
The EDHREC Problem: 29 Lands Is Not Enough
EDHREC’s data shows the average Commander deck runs roughly 29 lands with 4 mana rocks. That’s the community default. Here’s what 29 lands actually costs you:
| Spell | 29 Lands | 37 Lands | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3MV on turn 3 | 95.2% | 97.2% | −2.0% |
| 5MV on turn 5 | 88.4% | 95.6% | −7.2% |
| 6MV on turn 6 | 75.1% | 90.3% | −15.2% |
At 29 lands, your 6-drop hits on curve in only 3 out of 4 games. That’s not variance — that’s a systematic mana base deficiency. You are choosing to miss your biggest play 25% of the time.
The 3MV slot looks fine at 29 lands (95.2%) because cheap spells are forgiving. But Commander games are won by landing your 5–6 mana spells on time, and that’s where the gap becomes a chasm.
Midrange: The 36–37 Sweet Spot
A typical midrange Commander deck — 3.0 average mana value, 10 ramp pieces, 3-color mana base (Abzan for this simulation) — shows a clear inflection point around 36–37 lands.
| Lands | 3MV on T3 | 4MV on T4 | 5MV on T5 | 6MV on T6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 96.5% | 96.0% | 93.1% | 84.1% |
| 35 | 96.9% | 96.6% | 94.5% | 87.4% |
| 36 | 97.1% | 96.9% | 95.1% | 88.9% |
| 37 | 97.2% | 97.1% | 95.6% | 90.3% |
| 38 | 97.4% | 97.3% | 96.1% | 91.4% |
| 40 | 97.7% | 97.6% | 96.8% | 93.3% |
At 36–37 lands, you cross the 95% threshold on every spell through 5MV. Adding more lands past 37 produces diminishing returns — the jump from 37 to 40 only gains 1–3% per spell. This matches Frank Karsten’s regression formula, which recommends about 37 lands for a 3.0 average MV deck with 10 ramp pieces.
cEDH: Why 30 Lands Works (With the Right Ramp)
Competitive Commander decks run 28–32 lands and get away with it because their ramp density is extreme: Sol Ring (2 mana), Mana Crypt (2 mana), Mana Vault (3 mana), Chrome Mox, Mox Diamond, plus 6–8 mana dorks and signets. Twelve ramp sources plus 5 fast mana pieces change the math entirely.
| Lands | 2MV on T2 | 3MV on T3 | 5MV on T5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 97.2% | 95.3% | 90.3% |
| 30 | 97.6% | 96.2% | 92.5% |
| 32 | 98.1% | 96.5% | 94.0% |
| 34 | 98.2% | 97.0% | 95.2% |
At 30 lands, a cEDH Sultai deck hits its 3-drop on turn 3 at 96.2%. That’s comparable to a midrange deck at 37 lands (97.2%) because the mana rocks substitute for land drops. The difference: cEDH decks are vulnerable to artifact removal in ways that land-heavy decks aren’t. Sol Ring getting Nature’s Claimed on turn 2 effectively takes you from 30 to 28 lands worth of mana.
Battlecruiser: Big Spells Need Big Mana Bases
Casual battlecruiser decks with 3.5+ average mana value and 8 ramp pieces are the most land-hungry archetype. These decks run haymakers at 6–7 mana and need to actually cast them.
| Lands | 5MV on T5 | 6MV on T6 | 7MV on T7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 93.1% | 84.0% | 67.3% |
| 37 | 94.6% | 87.4% | 72.8% |
| 38 | 95.2% | 88.8% | 75.5% |
| 40 | 96.1% | 91.3% | 79.9% |
| 42 | 96.9% | 93.4% | 84.0% |
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: even at 42 lands, a 7-mana spell is only castable by turn 7 in 84% of games. Big spells are inherently unreliable in Commander. If your deck depends on resolving a 7-drop to win, you need to accept that it won’t happen in 1 out of 5 games, or build ramp density to compensate.
Landfall: More Lands Is the Strategy
Landfall decks have a unique relationship with land count. Every land drawn is both a mana source AND a payoff trigger. Running 40+ lands isn’t just about consistency — it’s about maximizing the engine.
| Lands | 3MV on T3 | 4MV on T4 | 5MV on T5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 99.2% | 98.2% | 94.0% |
| 38 | 99.4% | 98.7% | 95.6% |
| 40 | 99.5% | 99.1% | 96.8% |
| 42 | 99.6% | 99.4% | 97.7% |
Landfall decks also benefit from running 6 land-ramp spells (Cultivate, Kodama’s Reach, Nature’s Lore) instead of mana rocks. These search up lands that trigger landfall payoffs AND fix colors. The simulation models these as land-based ramp producing actual lands, not generic mana.
Methodology
Every number in this article comes from ScrollVault’s WASM Monte Carlo simulation engine. The engine is the same code that powers the live Mana Base Calculator — it runs in your browser at 50,000 iterations per analysis.
What the engine models
- London Mulligan with Commander’s free first mulligan (draw 7, reject, draw 7 again with no penalty)
- 99-card singleton decks with realistic mana bases (shock lands, check lands, fast lands, pain lands, basics)
- Conditional ETB lands: fast lands (untapped with ≤2 lands), slow lands (untapped with ≥2 lands), check lands (need matching basic type), battle lands (need 2+ basics), reveal lands (need matching type in hand)
- Ramp with accurate mana output: Sol Ring = 2 mana, Mana Crypt = 2 mana, Mana Vault = 3 mana. Creature-based ramp (dorks) modeled with summoning sickness
- Hopcroft-Karp bipartite matching for colored pip satisfaction — ensures the simulation correctly handles multicolor casting costs, not just total mana count
What the engine does not model
- Fetch lands (deck thinning effect is marginal in 99-card decks but exists)
- Strategic mulligan decisions beyond land count (the engine uses a fixed keep-or-mulligan rule based on land count)
- Card draw and tutoring during the game (the engine measures natural mana development, not the effect of drawing into lands)
- Opponent interaction (removal on mana rocks, land destruction)
Configurations
75 configurations total: 5 archetypes × 15 land counts (28–42). Each configuration: 50,000 iterations = 50,000 simulated games. Total: 3,750,000 simulated games. Each archetype uses a realistic mana base for its color combination with a mix of untapped duals, conditional lands, and basics.
How This Relates to Frank Karsten’s Work
Frank Karsten — Pro Tour Hall of Famer and the mathematician behind the land count numbers every competitive Magic player uses — published a regression formula based on 95,143 winning tournament decklists:
60-card: Lands = 19.59 + (1.90 × avgMV) − (0.28 × cheap ramp/draw)
99-card: Lands = 31.42 + (3.13 × avgMV) − (0.28 × ramp/draw)
Our simulation validates his formula. For a midrange deck (3.0 avg MV, 10 ramp): Karsten says 31.42 + 9.39 − 2.80 = 38 lands. Our simulation shows 37–38 as the sweet spot where cast rates cross 95%. The numbers agree.
Where our simulation extends Karsten’s work is Commander-specific mechanics that his formula doesn’t model: the free first mulligan (improves hand quality by 1–3%), ramp pieces with variable mana output (Sol Ring produces 2, not 1), and conditional ETB lands that behave differently depending on turn number and board state. These factors produce cast rates 1–3% higher than a pure Karsten calculation would predict.
Try It With Your Deck
These numbers are for representative archetypes. Your deck has its own curve, ramp density, and color requirements. The Mana Base Calculator runs the same simulation engine on your actual decklist — import from Moxfield or Archidekt and get cast-rate data specific to your 99 cards.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many lands should a Commander deck have?
Based on 3.75 million simulated games: 36–37 lands for midrange (3.0 average mana value with 10 ramp pieces) gives 95–97% on-curve casting through turn 5. cEDH decks function at 29–31 lands with 12+ ramp sources. Battlecruiser decks (3.5+ average MV) need 38–40 lands to reliably cast 6–7 mana spells.
Is 29 lands enough for Commander?
29 lands is the EDHREC community average but simulation data shows it costs you significantly. A midrange deck at 29 lands casts its 5-drop on curve only 88% of the time versus 96% at 37 lands. That’s missing your big play in roughly 1 out of 8 games. For cEDH with 12+ ramp pieces, 29–30 lands works because fast mana compensates. For casual or midrange, 29 lands is too few.
How many lands does a cEDH deck need?
cEDH decks typically run 28–32 lands. At 30 lands with 12 ramp sources (including Sol Ring, Mana Crypt, and Mana Vault), a Sultai cEDH deck casts its 2-drop on turn 2 at 97.6% and its 3-drop on turn 3 at 96.2%. The dense fast mana package compensates for the low land count. Below 28 lands, even cEDH decks see meaningful drops in consistency.
How many lands for a battlecruiser Commander deck?
Battlecruiser decks with average mana value 3.5+ need 38–40 lands. At 37 lands, a 7-mana spell is only castable by turn 7 in 73% of games. At 40 lands that rises to 80%. Even at 42 lands, a 7-drop is only 84% reliable by turn 7. High-curve Commander decks are the most land-hungry archetype.
What methodology was used for these simulations?
Each data point is the result of 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using ScrollVault’s WASM engine. The engine models London Mulligan with Commander’s free first mulligan, 99-card singleton decks, realistic mana bases with conditional ETB lands, ramp sources with accurate mana output (Sol Ring = 2, Mana Vault = 3), and Hopcroft-Karp bipartite matching for colored pip satisfaction. Total: 3.75 million simulated games across 75 configurations.
How does this compare to Frank Karsten’s formula?
Karsten’s 99-card formula (lands = 31.42 + 3.13 × avgMV − 0.28 × ramp) was derived from regression analysis of tournament decks. Our simulation validates his formula for typical builds and extends it with Commander-specific modeling: free mulligan, variable ramp mana output, and ETB land conditions. These factors produce cast rates 1–3% higher than Karsten’s base model predicts.
Related Guides & Tools
- Mana Base Calculator — Run this simulation on your actual decklist
- How Many Lands in MTG? — Complete land count guide for all formats
- Mana Base Theory — Understanding colored source requirements
- Dual Lands Reference — Every land cycle by format
- Commander Bracket Calculator — Analyze your deck’s power level
- Hypergeometric Calculator — Raw draw probability math